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Language: English
ISBN-10: 1259277208
ISBN-13: 978-1259277207
ISBN-13: 9781259277207
Author: Hersh Shefrin
Table of Content:
Chapter 1 Behavioral Foundations
1.1 Traditional Corporate Financial Decisions and Psychological Tasks
Dual Systems
1.2 Biases
Excessive Optimism
Overconfidence
Confirmation Bias
Illusion of Control
1.3 Heuristics
Representativeness
Availability
Anchoring and Adjustment
Affect Heuristic
Interacting Phenomena
1.4 Framing Effects
Loss Aversion
The Fourfold Risk Pattern
Framing Pitfalls
Prospect Theory
Aspiration Points
1.5 Mitigating Pitfalls
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 1 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e
Minicase: Panama Canal
Case Analysis Questions
A1.1 Questionnaire
A1.2 Representativeness and Bayes’ Rule
A1.3 Formal Structure of Prospect Theory
Chapter 2 Introduction to Behavioral Analysis
2.1 Traditional Treatment of Corporate Financial Decisions
2.2 Behavioral Treatment of Corporate Financial Decisions
2.3 Analyzing Biases
Excessive Optimism
Overconfidence
Confirmation Bias
Illusion of Control
2.4 Analyzing Heuristics
Representativeness
Availability
Anchoring and Adjustment
Affect Heuristic
2.5 Value Destruction and Sun’s Endgame
2.6 Analyzing Framing Effects
Loss Aversion
Aversion to a Sure Loss
Lawsuits and Aftermath
2.7 Debiasing and Nudges
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 2 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e
Minicase: Nuclear Meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi
Case Analysis Questions
A2.1 Minicase: Hurricanes and Psychology: From Wall Street of the Southwest to the Big Easy
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 3 Valuation
3.1 Traditional Approach to Valuation
3.2 Target Price Heuristics
P/E Heuristic
PEG Heuristic
Price-to-Sales Heuristic
3.3 A CFO’s Reliance on Valuation Heuristics
3.4 How Analysts Value Firms: An Illustrative Example
Analyst Mary Meeker
The Morgan Stanley Team’s Mid-2004 Price Target for eBay
3.5 Valuation Heuristics and Biases: in Foresight
Optimism Bias: In Foresight
Biases Associated with P/E, PEG, and PVGO: In Foresight
Biases Related to the 1/n Heuristic: In Foresight
Biases Using the CAPM Heuristic: In Foresight
3.6 Valuation Heuristics and Biases: In Hindsight
3.7 Biases Associated with Free Cash Flow Formula
38. Agency Conflicts
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 3 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e
Minicase: Aetna
Case Analysis Questions
A3.1 Definition and Derivation of Free Cash Flow
A3.2 Growth Opportunity Bias (GOB)
A3.3 Biases Associated with the Textbook Free Cash Flow Formula
A3.4 Detailed Chronology of eBay, 2003–2014
A3.5 Minicase: Palm Inc.
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 4 Capital Budgeting
4.1 Traditional Treatment of Capital Budgeting
4.2 The Planning Fallacy
The Planning Fallacy in Aircraft Manufacturing
4.3 Excessive Optimism and Overconfidence in Capital Budgeting
Excessive Optimism in Public-Sector Projects
Excessive Optimism in Private-Sector Projects
Agency Conflict Determinants of Excessive Optimism
Overconfidence
Psychological Determinants of Excessive Optimism and Overconfidence
4.4 Project Adoption Criteria
The Importance of Intuition
The Affect Heuristic
Choice, Value, and the Affect Heuristic
4.5 Reluctance to Terminate Losing projects
Aversion to a Sure Loss
Escalation of Commitment
4.6 Confirmation Bias and Sunk Costs: Illustrative Example
Behavioral Bias and Agency Conflicts at Syntex
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 4 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e
Minicase: MGM Resorts International: Las Vegas CityCenter
Case Analysis Questions
A4.1 Detailed Description of Airbus’s A380 and Boeing’s 787
A4.2 Using Forecasts Prepared by Others
Implications
A4.3 Cost Accounting
The Framing of Costs
Heuristics
A4.4 Minicase: Compusys
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 5 Inefficient Markets and Corporate Decisions
5.1 Traditional Approach to Market Efficiency
5.2 Behavioral Approach to Market Efficiency
Irrational Exuberance and Stocks as a Whole
Sentiment Beta
Limits to Arbitrage
Risk and Sentiment
Managerial Decisions: Market Timing and Catering
5.3 Market Efficiency, Earnings Guidance, and NPV
5.4 Stock Splits
Example: Tandy’s Stock Split
5.5 To IPO or Not to IPO?
Three Phenomena
IPO Decisions
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Minicase: The IPOs of Groupon, Facebook, and Twitter
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 6 Perceptions about Risk and Return
6.1 Traditional Treatment of Risk and Return
6.2 Psychological Issues Estimating the Market Risk Premium
Die-Rolling
Extrapolation Bias: The Hot-Hand Fallacy
Gambler’s Fallacy
6.3 Biases in Financial Executives’ Judgments of Market Risk Premium
Overview
Detailed Look
6.4 Executives, Insider Trading, and Gambler’s Fallacy
6.5 Biases in Financial Executives’ Judgments Relating to Risk, Return, and Discount Rates
Discount Rate and WACC
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Minicase: Elon Musk, Tesla Motors, Risk, and Return
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 7 Capital Structure
7.1 Traditional Approach to Capital Structure
7.2 Behavioral Considerations Pertaining to Financing and Investment
7.3 How Do Managers Make Choices About Capital Structure in Practice?
New Equity: Market Timing
New Debt: Financial Flexibility and Debt Timing
Target Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Traditional Pecking Order
7.4 Market Timing: How Successful?
Perception of Overvalued Equity: New Issues
Perception of Undervalued Equity: Repurchases
Debt Market Timing
7.5 Financial Flexibility and Project Hurdle Rates
Undervalued Equity: Cash-Poor Firms Reject Some Positive NPV Projects
Undervalued Equity for Cash-Limited Firms: Invest or Repurchase?
7.6 Sensitivity of Investment to Cash Flow
7.7 Psychological Phenomena and Interdependencies among Financing, Investment, and Cash
Excessive Optimism, Overconfidence, and Cash
Identifying Excessively Optimistic, Overconfident Executives
Assessing Value
7.8 Catering and the Conflict Between Short-Term and Long-Term Horizons
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Minicase: Cogent Communications and PSINet
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 8 Dividend Policy
8.1 Traditional Approach to Payouts
8.2 Dividends and Investors: Psychology
Dividends and Risk: Bird in the Hand
Self-Control and Behavioral Life Cycle Hypothesis: Widows and Orphans
Institutional Investors
8.3 Survey Data Describing How Managers Think about Dividends
Changing Payout Policies: Some History
Survey Evidence
8.4 Dividend Policy and Investors’ Tastes
Citizens Utilities Company
Catering and Price Effects
Behavioral Signaling
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 8 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e
Minicase: Apple
Case Analysis Questions
A8.1 Minicase: Nipsco
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 9 Agency Conflicts and Corporate Governance
9.1 Traditional Approach to Agency Conflicts
9.2 Paying for Performance in Practice
Low Variability
Dismissal
Stock Options
Shareholder Rights
9.3 Psychological Phenomena
From the Mouth of Directors
Prospect Theory and Stock Option-Based Compensation
Risk Aversion and Impatience
Relative Incomes
9.4 Incentives, Accounting, Auditing, and Psychology
Earnings Management
Auditing
9.5 Sarbanes-Oxley and COSO
Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX)
COSO
9.6 Fraud and Stock Options: Illustrative Example
Signs of Disease?
9.7 Ethics and Cheating
Why Students Cheat
Ethics and Psychology: Why People Cheat
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 9 Are available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e
Minicase: Hertz
Case Analysis Questions
A9.1 From the Mouths of Board Members: Direct Quotations
A9.2 Minicase: Tyco
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 10 Mergers and Acquisitions
10.1 Traditional Approach to M&A
10.2 The Winner’s Curse
10.3 Optimism, Overconfidence, and Other Psychological Phenomena Impacting Acquiring Executives
Psychological Drivers of Risk in M&A
Reference Point-Based Heuristic Effects on Deal Negotiations
10.4 Theory
Symmetric Information, Rational Managers, and Efficient Prices
Excessive Optimism and Overconfidence When Prices Are Efficient
Inefficient Prices, the Acquisition Premium, and Catering
Asymmetric Information and the Winner’s Curse
10.5 AOL Time Warner: The Danger of Trusting Market Prices
Strategy and Synergy
Valuation
Asset Writedown
Hubris
Aftermath
10.6 Hewlett-Packard and Compaq Computer: Board Decisions
The Merger Alternative
Psychological Basis for the Decision to Acquire Compaq
Valuation
HP’s Board Accepts Reality
Aftermath
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 10 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e
Minicase: Yahoo!
Case Analysis Questions
A10.1 Avoiding the Winner’s Curse
Analytical Solution
A10.2 Two Monty Hall Problems
A10.3 Illustrative Example: Cisco Systems
Cerent Corporation
A10.4 Illustrative Example: AT&T
A10.5 Illustrative Example: 3Com and U.S. Robotics
Risks and Benefits
Outcome
A10.6 Illustrative Example: PSA Peugeot Citroen SA and Daimler Chrysler AG
Additional Questions
Chapter 11 Financial Management and Group Process
11.1 Traditional Approach to Financial Management
11.2 Process Loss
11.3 General Reasons for Group Errors
Groupthink
Poor Information Sharing
Inadequate Motivation
11.4 The Global Financial Crisis: Experiences of Different Firms
Financial Instability Hypothesis
Problematic Group Process and Psychological Phenomena at Financial Firms
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 11 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e
Minicase: Toshiba
Case Analysis Questions
A11.1 Enron and Worldcom
Enron
Imagine Yourself in the Boardroom
WorldCom
A11.2 Decision Making at PSINet
A11.3 Behavioral Aspects of Fairness
Fairness and Confidence
A11.4 Systemic Change: Process, Culture, and Neuromanagement
Open Book Management
Neuromanagement and OBM
A11.5 Seagate: Extended Minicase
Case Analysis Questions
Chapter 12 Application of Real-Option Techniques to Capital Budgeting and Capital Structure
12.1 Traditional Approach to Option Theory
12.2 Do Managers Use Real-Option Techniques?
Opaque Framing?
More Than a Decade Later: Have Viewpoints Changed?
12.3 Valuing Levered Equity
Example A12-6
12.4 Conflicts of Interest
Example: Small-Scale Project
Asset Substitution
Debt Overhang
Capital Structure
12.5 Overconfidence and Excessive Optimism
Overconfidence
Excessive Optimism
Capital Structure A12-18
Summary
Additional Behavioral Readings
Key Terms
Explore the Web
Chapter Questions
Minicase: The Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s
Case Analysis Question
Chapter 13 Behavioral Aspects of Investments
13.1 Traditional Approach to Investments
13.2 Psychology and Market Efficiency
Anomalies and Pricing Factors
Long-Term Reversals: Winner–Loser Effect
Momentum: Short-Term Continuation
Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift
Fixed Income Securities: The Expectations Hypothesis
Options: Implied Volatility Function
13.3 Limits of Arbitrage
Pick-a-Number Game
13.4 Closed-End Funds
13.5 The Baker-Wurgler Sentiment Index
13.6 Risk and Return: Susceptibility to Representativeness and the Affect Heuristic
Example
Risk, Affect, Representativeness, and Bias
Categorization
13.7 Sell-Side Analysts’ Judgments of Expected Return
13.8 Active and Passive Investing
13.9 Forecasting Market Returns and Risk Premiums
Individual Investors and the Hot-Hand Fallacy
Professional Forecasters and Gambler’s Fallacy
Market Forecasts Made by Portfolio Managers and Analysts
13.10 Realizing Gains and Losses: The Disposition Effect
Psychological Phenomena Underlying the Disposition Effect
Disposition Behavior
Valuation: The Endowment Effect and Responsibility
Momentum and the Disposition Effect
13.11 Individual Investors’ Stock Trades: Overconfidence
13.12 Attention and Familiarity
13.13 Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
13.14 Behavioral Portfolio Selection Framework
Downside Protection and Upside Potential
Value Expressiveness and Socially Responsible Investing
Diversification and Efficient Portfolios
13.15 Dividends, Self-Control, and Consumption
Dividends and Frame Transparency
Mental Accounting-Based Spending Rules
Dividend Clienteles
Price Changes, Returns, Framing, and Salience
13.16 Retirement Saving
13.17 Financial Planners
Financial Literacy
Big Five
Nudging Investors
13.18 Investment Committees
Homogeneity
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